[SMM Nickel Midday Review] On July 15, nickel prices barely held above the 11.9 mark, with China's H1 GDP up 5.3% YoY

SMM Nickel News on July 15:

Macro News:

(1) The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data showing that China's GDP in H1 was 66,053.6 billion yuan, up 5.3% YoY at constant prices. By industry, the added value of the primary industry was 3,117.2 billion yuan, up 3.7% YoY; the added value of the secondary industry was 23,905 billion yuan, up 5.3% YoY; and the added value of the tertiary industry was 39,031.4 billion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. By quarter, GDP in Q1 was up 5.4% YoY, and in Q2, it was up 5.2% YoY. On a QoQ basis, GDP in Q2 was up 1.1%.

(2) Trump: If Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 50 days, a 100% secondary tariff will be imposed on Russia. US official: Trump means that if no agreement is reached within 50 days, in addition to imposing a 100% tariff on Russia, secondary sanctions will also be imposed on countries purchasing Russian oil. Spot Market:

Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price is 119,200-121,600 yuan/mt, with an average price of 120,400 yuan/mt, down 1,350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 2,000-2,100 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,050 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

The quotation range for spot premiums and discounts of electrodeposited nickel from mainstream domestic brands is -100-300 yuan/mt. Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2508 contract) closed down 1.08% at 119,460 yuan/mt in the night session; it opened lower and continued to decline in the daytime session, with SHFE nickel quoted at 118,940 yuan/mt by the midday session, down 1.52%, barely holding above the 119,000 yuan/mt threshold.

Macro factors dominate the direction, with a risk of the price center moving lower. If tariffs are imposed or the US Fed delays interest rate cuts, SHFE nickel prices may fall further. In the short term, nickel prices may continue to be in the doldrums, with a core reference range of 118,000-123,000 yuan/mt.